Earlier this year I worked with the Earth League on a research programme investigating climate overshoot. One of the results of this collaboration is an article recently published in the journal One Earth: Living beyond limits: Consequences of missing the decisive decade for preserving our planet’s life-supporting systems.
I discussed this paper in the context of overshoot as part for the Technosphere Earth newsletter, and with Johan Rockstrom wrote a brief article for the Conversation. If you would like a copy of the One Earth article, please email me.
Citation
Rockström, J., Schlosser, P., Bhowmik, A.K., Cremades, R., Donges, J.F., Dyke, J.G., Ebi, K.L., Heilemann, A., Jacob, D., Mirazo, P. and Ramírez, D.M., 2025. Living beyond limits: Consequences of missing the decisive decade for preserving our planet’s life-supporting systems. One Earth.
Section snippets
Reflections on a decisive decade: Too little, too late
The state of the world in 2025 is not what was envisioned in 2015 when the Paris Agreement, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted. To limit humans’ dangerous interference with the Earth’s climate system, the Paris Agreement outlined a pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2100. The subsequent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on 1.5°C provided strong scientific support that exceeding this
Raising the stakes in the world’s biggest gamble
Over the last ten years, human activities have pushed the Earth system beyond its safe operating space (Figure 2). Humanity must act now to limit the exceedance of planetary boundaries because by the time the extent of consequences becomes evident to all, it will be too late to prevent them (Figure 2). In the case of climate change—which is already causing millions of premature deaths each year12—severe global implications are expected across all continents within the lifetimes of today’s
Managing overshoot: Recovering from a 1.5°C breach
An overshoot trajectory refers to a future in which global warming temporarily exceeds temperature limits, such as the 1.5°C threshold, but subsequently recover. The ability to recover from an overshoot trajectory and to avoid further transgression of other planetary boundaries is highly dependent on reducing overall consumption (Figure 2). Over the past 50 years, the population has more than doubled, energy and food production have more than tripled, while wildlife populations have declined by
Action space: Coordinated and urgent efforts are needed
An overshoot of 1.5°C is now unavoidable, but science shows that it need not be permanent if decisive, coordinated action is taken. Recovery from climate overshoot will first and foremost require: (1) a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels alongside a scale-up of renewables to prevent an energy shortfall; (2) a transformation of the food system from a net carbon source to a sink, while protecting biodiversity and meeting global nutritional needs for a growing population. In addition, managing the
Researcher-decision-maker partnerships: What we need
Addressing the interconnected challenges of climate change, ecosystem degradation, and human well-being across energy, food, and urban systems in a comprehensive, integrated manner is a priority. Mutually beneficial outcomes can result and ensure lasting impact, reducing the risk of negative trade-offs.
Destabilizing feedback loops between biophysical and socio-economic systems risk eroding the capacity to sustain mitigation and adaptation efforts, potentially derailing sustainability
Acknowledgments
This commentary is the result of discussions held during The Earth League’s Annual Meeting, convened in June 2025 in Hamburg, Germany, at the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS). We gratefully acknowledge the contributions of all participants in the working sessions. Their insights and collaborative efforts were instrumental in shaping the synthesis presented in this work. We would like to thank Line Gordon, Hermann Held, Wolfgang Lucht, María Máñez Costa, Takashi Otsuka, Jürgen Renn, and
Author contributions
Conceptualization, writing – original draft, and writing – review & editing: J. Rockström, P.S., A.K.B., R.C., J.F.D., J.G.D., K.L.E., A.H., D.J., P.M., D.M.R., N.N., I.O., F.P., J. Ranganathan, H.J.S., R.W., and H.C.W.; supervision: J. Rockström, P.S., D.M.R., P.M., H.C.W., and A.H.; visualization: J. Rockström, A.K.B., J.F.D., J.G.D., I.O., H.J.S., and H.C.W. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.